Economic Boom or Bust? Nancy Mantell
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Published in U.S. 1 Newspaper on January 5, 2000.
POEM: Photonics Review
Congressman Rush Holt will keynote the research
review entitled “Photonics: Meeting Global Demands” at Princeton
University’s Center for Photonics and Optoelectronic Materials (POEM)
on Thursday, January 6, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Among the nearly three-dozen
15-minute presenters are Marshall Cohen of Sensors Unlimited at
Princeton Service Center, Chuni Ghosh of Princeton Electronic
Systems in the Dataram center, Michael Hack of Universal Display
Corporation on Phillips Boulevard, and Jay Trautman of Praelux
on Princess Road. Lunch will feature a poster session. After the
reception and banquet at Prospect House, Holt will speak at 7:30 p.m.
on “Perspectives of a Scientist in Congress.” Cost: $50 for the
meeting and $40 for the banquet. Call 609-258-4454.
Top Of PageEconomic Boom or Bust? Nancy Mantell
Economic boom-time for New Jersey may continue well
into the year 2000, but just how long will it last?
Nancy Mantell, an economist and director of the Rutgers Economic
Advisory Service (REAS), expects a strong economy for the next five
years, but it seems that 1999 may have marked the zenith of the
state’s most recent economic expansion. “New Jersey’s economy has
been growing rapidly for a mature economy, and next year we’re looking
for 1.5 percent growth, but it’s slowly declining,” she says.
Still, employment will remain strong for the next several years.
“There’s
a lot of information from companies that say they’re planning to
hire,”
she says. In a recent report, REAS anticipates another 56,600 new
jobs in the year 2000, down only slightly from 1999, which saw 65,900
new positions created in New Jersey.
Most of New Jersey’s new jobs will be in the service industry, with
one exception: REAS anticipates that the business services industry,
which includes programmers, technology consultants, and personnel
companies, will contract as demand fueled by recent Y2K problems
fades.
“I expect business service growth will flatten and possibly even
decline after 2001,” says Mantell. “Although I don’t expect
fewer programmers to be hired, they’ll be hired inside a company
rather
than outsourced for a specific problem.”
Previously an economist at Data Resources and Wharton Econometrics,
Mantell has been with Rutgers for eight years. One of her favorite
assignments was projecting how fast EZ Pass would catch on in the
city’s bridges and tunnels, a project conducted for the Metropolitan
Bridge and Tunnel Authority. “We projected that the bridge where
EZ Pass would catch on the fastest is the Henry Hudson, because a
lot of commuters use it and not many others do. The other one is the
Verrazano.”
The daughter of an economist who worked for what is now Solomon Smith
Barney, she received a BA in economics from the University of
Pennsylvania,
Class of 1966. She now lives in Scarsdale.
Part and parcel of business growth, says Mantell, is an upward trend
in consumer buying power. Personal income is expected to grow 6.1
percent before dropping to an average gain of 5 percent between 2000
and 2004. This, says Mantell, may be the result of the new world
economy.
“Companies seem to be holding down their prices,” she says.
“We live in a world market now; people fear that raising prices
may mean you won’t be competitive.”
If there is an eventual economic downturn, Mantell urges frugality.
“If you think there’s a chance that the expansion won’t continue,
you would essentially be more conservative in your hiring and
inventory
so that you can protect your position. If you do that you’re
preventing
the expansion from continuing at the current rate, but you’re
protecting
your own business.”
Top Of PageEntrepreneurs’ Forum
At the New Jersey Entrepreneurs Forum on Thursday,
January
13, at 6:30 p.m., John Freyhof of Venture Bank will address
“Venture Borrowing Techniques,” and Richard A. Maloy
Jr.,
of Maloy Insurance at 228 Alexander Street, will discuss his new
business
venture. Maloy Insurance provides risk management and insurance
placement
services and specializes in the information technology and life
sciences
industries (E-mail: maloy@maloyins.com). The meeting will be held
at McAteer’s Restaurant, on Easton Avenue in Somerset. Cost: $45.
Call 908-789-3424.
Top Of PageVolunteer Workshops
Register now for “Community Works: Workshops for
Volunteer Development,” to be held Thursday, January 27, 5 to
9:15 p.m. at the Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School.
Sponsored
by Rotary Club of Princeton and organized by a committee headed by
Marge Smith, it costs $22 including a box supper. Each participant
can take two workshops from a list that includes using the Internet
for your non-profit organization, managing conflict, asking for money,
public speaking, building an active board, fundraising, accessing
foundations and corporations for funding, nuts and bolts of a press
release, marketing your image, motivating volunteers, and
collaborative
projects. Those who register early get first priority on their
choices.
Call 609-924-8652 for a registration form.
B>Randy Weidenaar, president of Ergo Marketing
Communications, will speak on “How to Design Better for New Year
Audiences” at the meeting of the New Jersey Communications,
Advertising & Marketing Association (NJCAMA) on Tuesday, January 11,
at 11:30 a.m. at the Doral Forrestal. Co-founder of his communications
firm, Weidenaar has a background in European design, and he will
discuss what’s new in design trends, and what old approaches should be
thrown out. Cost: $35. Call 609-890-9207.
Top Of PagePrinceton Adult School
From hiking New Jersey’s trails to searching for life
in the galaxy, Princeton Adult School offers a variety of classes.
Right now, registration is underway for the Winter/Spring semester,
which begins on February 1. New courses cover using the Internet as
a travel resource, preparing dinner parties, and making career
changes.
There are also 27 language courses.
Princeton Adult School has been offering classes for 60 years. Classes
are held Tuesday and Thursday evenings at Princeton High School.
In-person
registration is Tuesday, January 11, at 7 p.m. Call 609-683-1101.
NJ CAMA is asking individuals, companies, and
organizations
to submit their advertising, communications and marketing creations
for the Astra Awards. Categories include sales (such as
point-of-purchase
ideas), direct marketing, newspaper advertising, web site design,
radio and television, as well as multimedia campaigns and public
service
advertising.
Entries must have been conceived and created within New Jersey, and
must have appeared for the first time in the media between January
1 and December 31 1999. The deadline is Tuesday, January 11. Late
entries will be accepted until Tuesday, January 18, with an additional
fee. Call 732-329-9579 for eligibility requirements.
The Community Health Law Project, New Jersey’s legal
aid society for people with disabilities and the elderly, has been
awarded $300,000 over three years from the federal Department of
Housing
and Urban Development. “These dollars will enable us to identify
and pursue cases of discrimination in which residential dwellings
are not built in compliance with federal and state law and are thereby
inaccessible to persons with mobility impairments,” said David
Lazarus, director of litigation for the organization. Call
973-275-1175.
Donations are being accepted by KidsBridge Children’s
Cultural Center in Trenton, an organization that creates hands-on
exhibits for kids between the ages of 2 and 12 that help teach
subjects
like energy, science, tolerance, publishing, and more. The donations
will go towards eight new exhibits that will sit in the redeveloped
the Roebling building on Route 129. Call 609-396-4300 or E-mail
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